We have already identified the most winnable Big Ten home games (read that story here), so let’s take a look at the road schedule and see what the Ducks are up against when they leave Eugene.
Typically, there is an advantage to the home team based on fan support and familiarity with the field. Also consider that the new additions to the Big Ten (Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA) face some significant travel adjustments as they head east. While no one knows exactly how teams adjust to the travel, it should be part of an exciting 2024 season.
Now, on to the most winnable away games.
WINNABLE: Purdue hosts Oregon on October 18
These teams have played three times, with Oregon posting two wins and Purdue one.
The first meeting was in West Lafayette in September of 1979, when the Boilermakers won a defensive battle, 13-7. The second meeting, also in Indiana, was a two-overtime affair in 2008, with Oregon pulling out a 32-26 win. The last game these teams played was in 2009 at Autzen Stadium. This was the highest scoring game with the Ducks winning, 38-36.
Purdue’s long football history includes being part of the formation of the Big Ten Conference in 1896, which also included Illinois, Michigan, Chicago (withdrew in 1936), Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. Purdue’s success on the field is spread over a significant period of time, most of it in the late 1990’s.
Purdue has produced a number of well-known athletes, including running back Mike Alstott, Purdue’s all-time leading rusher, and quarterback Drew Brees (1997-2000). However, the Boilermakers were unable to bring the talent to contend for Big Ten championships prior to hiring Jeff Brohm in 2017.
In six seasons as Purdue’s head coach, Brohm built a winning tradition in West Lafayette. He took the team to four bowl appearances and three stunning victories over top five teams. Brohm’s Boilermakers captured the first Big Ten West title in school history to advance to the 2022 Big Ten Championship. Brohm left for Louisville after that season and Purdue hired Ryan Walters, who went 4-8 in his first season.
While there is optimism that Walters can rebuild the Boilermakers team, it is unlikely that this happens in 2024. Purdue is ranked 18 per ESPN’s College Football’s Power Index (FPI). All this adds up to what could be a big win for the Ducks in West Lafayette.
WINNABLE: UCLA hosts Oregon on September 28
These two teams have met on the field 72 times, dating back to 1928. The Bruins have captured 40 wins while Oregon won 32 times. The last meeting was Oct. 22, 2022, when Oregon cruised to a 45-30 victory. Also of note, the Ducks are 18-16 when playing UCLA at home and 14-24 when on the road.
This game is one of two this season against former Pac-12 rivals who have moved to the Big Ten (Washington being the second) and therefore should be familiar to the Ducks. However, former Oregon and UCLA coach, Chip Kelly, left the Bruins for the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State prompting the Bruins to hire DeShaun Foster as the new head coach. In addition, the Bruins lost highly regarded defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to USC in a lateral move. As a result, Foster is tasked with a nearly total rebuild on both sides of the ball with new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, and defensive coordinator, Ikaika Malloe.
If the coaching changes aren’t enough to deal with, UCLA’s schedule looks to be as difficult as other Big Ten teams. UCLA plays LSU in a non-conference game and then faces Big Ten opponents, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, Washington, and USC.
As to talent on the field, UCLA’s cupboard isn’t completely bare. UCLA lost 15 players to the transfer portal but signed 16, including four-star transfer QB Dermaricus Davis (Washington) and WR Rico Flores from Notre Dame. On the defense side of the ball, safety Bryan Addison left the Ducks and signed with UCLA. The Bruins also return starting quarterback, Ethan Garbers, who won the job over Dante Moore, who subsequently landed in Eugene as a transfer portal signee for the Ducks.
Suffice to say UCLA is facing a period of change on nearly all levels of the organization. Several preseason polls show the Bruins registering a four or five-win season and missing out on a bowl game. Furthermore, UCLA is listed as No. 12 in ESPN's College Football's Power Index for the Big Ten.
Unfortunately for Bruin fans, the only apparent advantage versus Oregon is the home field record. Accordingly, we see this as another big victory for coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks.
WINNABLE: Wisconsin welcomes the Ducks to Camp Randall stadium on November 16
This game is likely to be Oregon’s second biggest challenge after a trip to Michigan’s Big House on Nov. 2. Duck fans take pride in the atmosphere they bring to Autzen stadium but they are challenged by Badger fans as noted in this quote from The New York Times.
“There are plenty of rowdy stadiums in college football…but perhaps no stadium rocks more than Wisconsin’s Camp Randall.”
That may be true, but coach Lanning has already started to prepare his team for the noise level of games like this. He recently started piping in crowd noise during practice.
"We have got to get better operation," coach Lanning said recently. "We've really attacked that the last couple days. I think that's really good. We got to keep incorporating more crowd noise for our guys, so they get used to that. So we had some of that today."
When asked why the noise, he had this response:
"Just because we're going to play in some loud stadiums. Our stadium is a loud stadium when our defense is out there, right? The coach-to-player communication is a little bit different. How are you going to use that? And what's that going to look like on the field?"
As far as games played between these two teams, both have tallied three wins and three losses.
The first game was played in 1977 in Eugene and resulted in a Badgers’ victory, 22-10. In fact, Wisconsin won the first three times they played (22-19 in Madison in September 1978 and 27-23 in September 2000 at Camp Randall). The Ducks won the next three (31-28 in Eugene in 2001, 45-38 in January 2012, and 28-27 in January 2020). Of course, Ducks’ fans know those last two wins came in the Rose Bowl. This is certainly a limited sample size but based on head-to-head meetings, neither has an advantage.
Wisconsin has long been known as a well-coached team and a formidable opponent. Yet, many may not have noticed a recent slide in performance. Consider that following tremendous years in the late 1990’s to 2019, there has been a significant decline. The Badgers went 4-3 in 2020’s shortened season due to COVID, 9-4 (after starting 1-3) in 2021, 7-6 in 2022, which resulted in the firing of coach Paul Chryst, and 7-6 last year.
What has bothered fans was the team’s failure to meet the admittedly elevated expectations for 2023. This was coach Luke Fickell's first year and finished with seven wins, and yet had a relatively low strength of schedule that included losses to Northwestern and Indiana.
Wisconsin lost 23 players to the transfer portal and signed just 15. The good news is that they addressed key positions, including signing a transfer quarterback from Miami, Tyler Van Dyke, who is slated to be the starter this year.
Wisconsin also has a schedule this year that will challenge Fickell and his team. The Badgers play Alabama in a non-conference game and will see the likes of USC, Penn State, Iowa and, of course, Oregon. In terms of Big Ten rankings, ESPN’s College Football’s Power Index has the Badgers at No. 11.
With all that’s happened recently, Wisconsin is definitely looking at a rebuild year, which is not helpful when playing a team like Oregon. The Ducks will need to play well in a loud environment to come away with a win, but we see this game as winnable.
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